Investor and user interest levels have increased, but that hasn’t translated into higher transaction volume. Barriers such as tariffs, interest rates, and elevated construction costs continue to present challenges to completing transactions. Sellers are not budging on price, especially if they have little debt and expect to have rent upside as quality tenants that pay top dollar are abundant. Owner/users will pay premiums or engage in bidding wars to secure space for growth.
Coldwell Banker Commercial® brand markets with strong population growth and marginal wage increases have seen prices go up significantly for small spaces across retail, office and industrial asset classes. Land transaction activity is elevated as developers bank sites for future residential development projects. They are competing with a wave of data center developers who require specific zoning and infrastructure requirements as well as large logistics users.
Unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.4% as of November 2025, which is the highest rate in nearly four years, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although consumer spending has remained strong, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey* shows that consumer confidence in November 2025 fell from October, which could be attributed to high personal debt and rising costs from persistent inflation.
Total U.S. commercial real estate volume was $385.7 billion through October 2025, up 13% year-over-year. Development sites, office, retail and senior housing were the best performing assets while multifamily and industrial lagged behind, according to MSCI Real Assets data through October 2025.
Nationwide, average cap rates are lowest for multifamily properties at 5.6%, according to Real Capital Analytics data through October 2025. Industrial rates were 80 bps higher at 6.4% while office rates were the highest among major asset classes at 7.5%.
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